Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Best Picture Oscar Predictions: 2012-2013

The title explains it all. These are my first "official" Best Picture predictions.

1. Argo

Chance of nomination: 100%

The question is not whether or not it will be nominated, but whether or not it will win. It's hard to tell at this point, but I would say it stands a decent chance, assuming it doesn't lose steam once Oscar voting begins. I certainly wouldn't complain if it took it all.

Chance of winning: 30%

2. Lincoln

Chance of nomination: 100%

Generic, typical Oscar fodder. But despite the fact that this movie doesn't appeal to me, it still holds a lot of weight among critics, who all seem to love it. Maybe not a future winner, but definitely a top candidate, and one of the first viable chances Spielberg has had of winning for quite some time.

Chance of winning: 20%

3. Les Miserables

Chance of nomination: 95%

Very early responses (not even to be found on Rotten Tomatoes) imply this may very well be the winner this year. Seeing as how rarely musicals win Best Picture, I have my doubts. We'll have to see once reviews start cropping up if this movie has what it takes. But a nomination seems locked.

Chance of winning: 20%

4. Zero Dark Thirty

Chance of nomination: 90%

Early reviews are very positive, and though it's hard to see this as a clear-cut winner (due largely to the fact that Bigelow just won Best Picture a few years back for The Hurt Locker), it still stands a decent chance to be considered a frontrunner.

Chance of winning: 15%

5. The Master

Chance of nomination: 85%

Though, at the moment, it seems to be losing quite a bit of its steam, I feel this movie will make for one of the most-nominated movies of the year, and just might grab a few awards: Best Picture may not be very likely, but it is a possibility that I won't deny.

Chance of winning: 10%

6. Silver Linings Playbook

Chance of nomination: 70%

Early reviews were extremely positive, escalating this to frontrunner status, but as it is, its chances have lowered quite a bit. A nomination is quite likely, since the field is anywhere from 5 to 10 entries, but its chances of winning is virtually non-existent.

Chance of winning: 5%

7. Django Unchained

Chance of nomination: 50%

The first of the selection that truly has no chance of winning. Being a Tarantino movie, the chances that it will earn plenty of awards attention is high, and I think it might even find its way into the final group, but a movie like this can't win Best Picture. Simple as that.

Chance of winning: 0%

8. Life Of Pi

Chance of nomination: 40%

And this is where it starts to get dodgy. I don't believe this movie deserves a nomination, but reviews are strong, and it has enough of a following that may get it in the running. It might sneak into the list, but a win is just not going to happen.

Chance of winning: 0%

9. Beasts Of The Southern Wild

Chance of nomination: 30%

My own feelings for this movie aside, I think it stands a chance to earn a nomination, but its early release date will no doubt have a negative impact on its chances. Does it deserve one? Absolutely. But will they remember it? I hope so, but I'm just not sure.

Chance of winning: 0%

10. The Sessions

Chance of nomination: 10%

This spot could just as easily go to Moonrise Kingdom, but it doesn't really matter much. I would expect to see Screenplay nominations for these both, but a Best Picture nomination doesn't seem too likely. But who knows, there have been bigger surprises.

Chance of winning: 0%

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