Thursday, November 29, 2012

Best Actor Oscar Predictions: 2012-2013

1. Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln

Chance of nomination: 100%

This isn't even a question, he will get a nomination. And half of me says he will even win it. The only thing stopping him from being a lock for the victory, is the fact that no-one has ever won 3 Best Actor trophies before, and Daniel Day-Lewis already has 2. Will the Academy allow the greatest actor alive to make history? It's possible, and at this point, definitely a more likely answer than anyone else.

Chance of winning: 50%

2. Joaquin Phoenix in The Master

Chance of nomination: 100%

Due to the strangeness of his role, and recent off-putting comment directed towards the Academy (*gasp*), Phoenix doesn't look like as likely to win Best Actor as he previously did. Does that mean he doesn't have a chance? Absolutely not, but I still find it hard to picture him winning. One thing's for sure, though: he is getting a nomination.

Chance of winning: 20%

3. Denzel Washington in Flight

Chance of nomination: 90%

At this point, most of the Best Actor nominee spots have already been filled. Washington, who hasn't earned a nomination for over 10 years, is an old favorite of the Academy, with 5 nominations and 2 wins already, so a win does not seem too likely. But it wouldn't be unreasonable to say he stands a pretty good chance of making this his 6th nomination.

Chance of winning: 15%

4. John Hawkes in The Sessions

Chance of nomination: 80%

Hawkes, who has been nominated once before for Winter's Bone (and completely shafted for Martha Marcy May Marlene), has managed to stay near the top of the awards radar for close to a year now with this Sundance release. The fact that he is still on the radar is a good indication of how good he must be in this, so it would be safe to assume he can hold on for another few months. A win, however, does seem a bit unlikely.

Chance of winning: 10%

5. Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook

Chance of nomination: 40%

It's not that I doubt Cooper is good enough for a nomination in this (though I haven't yet had a chance to see it), but Lawrence and De Niro seem to be garnering the most attention for their performances here, so it's hard to tell if he will gather enough votes to make it into the final 5. Still, I can see him making it in there, so here he sits, right on the bubble.

Chance of winning: 5%

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