Chance of nomination: 100%
This isn't even a question, he will get a nomination. And half of me says he will even win it. The only thing stopping him from being a lock for the victory, is the fact that no-one has ever won 3 Best Actor trophies before, and Daniel Day-Lewis already has 2. Will the Academy allow the greatest actor alive to make history? It's possible, and at this point, definitely a more likely answer than anyone else.
Chance of winning: 50%