A recently released somewhat unofficial shortlist has named these 42 movies the ones currently fighting for the coveted Best Picture Oscar. So I'm gonna go down the list, from A to Z and try to determine which of these are the most likely to be in the 5-10 total movies that will be up for the award here in the next couple weeks.
So I'm going to put each of the 42 movies into one of 5 categories of likelihood:
1. Practically guaranteed
2. Fairly likely
3. Possible, not probable
4. Highly unlikely
5. Not a chance
Best Picture Contenders: A - Z
1917
Practically guaranteed.
While I am still waiting for the weekend of the 10th to roll around to see it myself, critics and awards all over who have seen this have pretty much all agreed that this is one of the top movies of the year.
Ad Astra
Highly unlikely.
While I enjoyed this one a great deal, its exclusion from the Best Visual Effects shortlist (comically to make room for Cats) pretty much shows just how little the Academy thinks of this movie.
The Aeronauts
Not a chance.
Have you seen or heard anything about this movie? Me neither. Because nobody cares.
Avengers: Endgame
Possible, not probable.
Had this movie come out 3+ years ago, this would be a big fat no. But since the comic book/superhero movie has started to gain awards support, this "final" Avengers movie just might make it in.
The Banker
Not a chance.
See: The Aeronauts. I forgot this movie existed until I saw this list.
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
Highly unlikely.
Had this movie come out maybe a month or so later, this could be fresh enough on people's minds for it to get more awards attention, but as it stands, this movie is just too inoffensively forgettable to stick around -- outside of the possible Tom Hanks nomination.
Bombshell
Possible, not probable.
With above average reviews, it's hard to call this a likely nomination, but given the subject matter and talented cast, this one fits in that middle grey area that's hard to decide on completely. I'm guessing no, but it's still possibly gonna find its way in if there are 8+ nominees again.
Booksmart
Highly unlikely.
It got a Golden Globe nomination for one of the two lead actresses, but the movie as a whole couldn't even get a Picture nomination within the comedy genre, so the strong reviews won't likely mean much.
Cats
Not a chance.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaahahahahaahhahahahahahahahaahha...no.
Clemency
Not a chance.
Had Alfre Woodard's performance gotten more awards attention, this might have found its way into the conversation, but from my point of view this movie will be totally overlooked.
Dark Waters
Possible, not probable.
I don't have too much confidence in this one, but the film's subject matter and well-received lead performance by Mark Ruffalo might be enough. Stranger things have happened.
Dolemite Is My Name
Possible, not probable.
Eddie Murphy's big comeback, an all-black cast, a strong screenplay about the film industry...this movie hits a lot of the right notes to make it big at the Oscars, but there's a cynical part of me that say they're going to ignore the movie just because it's a comedy. I'll be rooting for it, though.
Downton Abbey
Highly unlikely.
I don't know, it just seems like the kind of movie that nobody is going to remember. Also, movies based on/following shows don't really do well at the Oscars. I don't see it getting much of anything, if even anything at all.
The Farewell
Fairly likely.
The parts are all there for plenty of nominations for this movie, but it's teetering on the brink, possibly being forgotten by a lot of people due to its early in the year release date. It's currently just outside of my top 10 predictions.
Ford v Ferrari
Fairly likely.
Had this movie come out in 2018, it would have been a shoo-in, but 2019 was a much better year for movies, so it's not quite in that top group. Still, I'm guessing this one will make its way in to the top 8.
Harriet
Possible, not probable.
Cynthia Erivo is a yes, but the movie it definitely outside of the race looking in. I don't think it will be in that top group, but it could potentially slide in.
A Hidden Life
Not a chance.
Nobody knows about this movie, and the people that do are all considering it pretty standard stuff for Malick. Maybe it will get a cinematography nomination, but Best Picture isn't happening here.
Honey Boy
Highly unlikely.
It's a little too small and off-the-beaten-path for most Oscar voters. If it gets anything major, it will be a surprise Screenplay nomination, but even that would be, well, surprising.
Hustlers
Highly unlikely.
I'm close to calling this a "Not a chance", but Jennifer Lopez being a frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress might help the movie stick in people's minds enough to slip it into one of those final slots. But I seriously doubt that. There's too much competition already.
The Irishman
Practically guaranteed.
I didn't like this movie myself, but it has everything required to be right near the top, and a possible Best Picture winner, even. A nomination is happening.
Jojo Rabbit
Fairly likely.
This is one I'm putting around 6th or 7th, so I would pretty much call this a guarantee at this point, but if it doesn't wind up getting a nomination it wouldn't be too horribly shocking. Comedies don't always do too great, but this one seems like it will make the cut.
Joker
Fairly likely.
If Avengers is going to make the cut, Joker absolutely will. With all the attention this is getting across the board, it just might land 7 nominations, Best Picture included. It's one of my predictions right now, but it still might wind up being overlooked.
Judy
Highly unlikely.
Renee Zellweger is pretty much guaranteed an Oscar nomination, and the movie will likely get Makeup & Hair as well, but Best Picture usuall goes to movies with better overall reception than this -- especially in strong years.
Just Mercy
Possible, not probable.
It seemed going into the awards season that this movie would play a bigger part than it has, but with Jamie Foxx's SAG nomination and some top 10 list appearances, this movie might stick with people enough to make it if the category is opened up to a full 10. But I doubt it.
Knives Out
Possible, not probable.
I wish I could have more confidence in Academy voters in regards to this movie, but I have the feeling this one will go completely ignored when it comes time for nominations to be announced. But there's a possibility it might do really well. This is one of the biggest question marks of the whole awards season for me. I just don't know.
The Last Black Man In San Francisco
Not a chance.
It's too tough of a race for big movies that people like for a small movie like this to be a real contender. I don't see it getting anything at all.
The Lighthouse
Highly unlikely.
The Oscars aren't for horror so much, and this movie is too jarring and weird for the Academy even if they were more friendly towards the genre. I'm rooting for it to get anything, but reality is this one won't get its due.
Little Women
Fairly likely.
Another that's just outside of my top 5, but I still see as one of the more likely Best Picture nominees. Sight unseen it sounds bland an uninteresting to me, but I felt the same about Lady Bird. So, yeah. This one seems like awards fodder.
Marriage Story
Practically guaranteed.
One of the two big Netflix awards movies this year (there are more, but they aren't as likely), and really it seems to be a given at this point. It's a possible winner, but I'm not so sure yet. But a nomination is gonna happen.
Motherless Brooklyn
Not a chance.
A vanity project by Edward Norton that hasn't really panned out. It's got decent reviews and might score a couple peripheral nominations, but it's not getting into Best Picture.
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Practically guaranteed.
Another one of the big ones that just might wind up winning the whole thing. I'm currently rooting for this one to be the big winner, but we'll see. Still, a nomination is locked in.
Pain & Glory
Possible, not probable.
If it weren't for the ridiculously high praise that's been given to Parasite this year, I might see this as more of a realistic possibility, but I just don't see the Oscars giving Best Picture nominations to two foreign movies in the same year. But it just might happen, due to the autobiographical nature of the movie, and Banderas' acclaimed performance.
Parasite
Practically guaranteed.
It's weird to even think that a foreign movie might wind up winning Best Picture this year, but it almost happened for Roma last year, so we'll just have to see. But a nomination is a foregone conclusion at this point.
Queen & Slim
Highly unlikely.
It hasn't left a strong enough impact on top 10 lists and awards leading up the Oscars this year to be a realistic prediction here. But it might hit the right notes to slip in somehow. I'm very doubtful, though.
The Report
Highly unlikely.
I watched this one and it left zero impact on me. Nobody seems to notice this movie, and Bening's SAG nomination felt very out-of-nowhere. I don't see it happening here.
Richard Jewell
Possible, not probable.
Every handful of years Clint Eastwood releases a successful awards contender, and this movie has gotten just enough attention to be a possible nominee. Do I see it making the final cut? No, but it could theoretically do it.
Rocketman
Possible, not probable.
I thought for sure this movie was going to be forgotten by now, but much like Bohemian Rhapsody, it seems to be a lot more powerful of a force than expected. Still, even though I see the movie as a whole walking away with 4 or 5 nominations, Best Picture doesn't seem terribly likely.
Toy Story 4
Highly unlikely.
I forgot this movie even happened, and I watched it. Best Animated Feature is a lock here, but Best Picture? If it couldn't happen for Inside Out, it won't happen for TS4.
The Two Popes
Possible, not probable.
While it did well at the Golden Globes, this just isn't impactful or memorable enough of a movie for me to see it as a legitimate Oscar contender. Still, it has some momentum and might land a handful of big nominations.
Uncut Gems
Possible, not probable.
Although it hasn't gotten Golden Globe or SAG nominations, this movie has had so much attention and praise, it's hard to ignore it completely. While I absolutely believe it deserves a nomination here, if the movie just winds up making it into a couple categories, it will be Best Actor instead. Even still, I'm skeptical.
Us
Highly unlikely.
Jordan Peele struck gold once already with Get Out, which unbelievably did well at the Oscars, but Us is likely to walk away with no more than 1 or 2 nominations, and I don't see Best Picture as one of them.
Waves
Highly unlikely.
Zero momentum, but has all the right pieces to seem like a legitimate contender. I'm frankly disappointed in the lack of attention this movie has been paid, but that's not what this post is about. I just don't see this as a realistic prediction.
What follows is my current order of predictions, from most to least likely:
1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
3. Parasite
4. Marriage Story
5. 1917
6. Jojo Rabbit
7. Little Women
8. Ford V Ferrari
9. Joker
10. The Farewell
11. Bombshell
12. Pain & Glory
13. Rocketman
14. Richard Jewell
15. Dolemite Is My Name
16. Richard Jewell
17. Knives Out
18. Uncut Gems
19. Dark Waters
20. Avengers: Endgame
21. Just Mercy
22. Harriet
23. Us
24. A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
25. Waves
26. Honey Boy
27. Queen & Slim
28. Hustlers
29. The Report
30. Toy Story 4
31. The Lighthouse
32. Booksmart
33. Downton Abbey
34. Judy
35. Ad Astra
36. The Aeronauts
37. Clemency
38. The Last Black Man In San Francisco
39. Motherless Brooklyn
40. A Hidden Life
41. The Banker
42. Cats
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