Wow, Best Actor is a stacked category this year. I normally wouldn't see there being a possibility of this many different nominees, but here we are. So let's go down the list and see how wrong I'm going to be.
11. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters
While the movie itself hasn't gotten a ton of attention, Ruffalo is an Oscar favorite and his performance is one that just might get the attention needed to get his 4th nomination.
10. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
With a Golden Globe nomination already under his belt, Pryce may be a longshot but isn't out of the race for the Oscar. This would be his career-first Oscar nomination, and that might be enough reason for voters to be swayed towards him.
9. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
I want to expect this movie to get some Oscar nominations, but I realistically don't see it happening. Sandler is terrific in this movie, and I think deserves to be in the top 2 or 3 of this whole category, but we'll have to see what happens.
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Another performance I would love to see get a nomination, but with how competitive this category is, it's hard to see as more than an outside-shot.
7. Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Part of this is just wishful thinking, because De Niro truly does not deserve a nomination for this mediocre performance, but it's one of the biggest movies of the year and he's one of the biggest actors of all-time. It's pretty hard to ignore that.
6. Taron Egerton, Rocketman
I was genuinely surprised when Egerton got a SAG nomination (I expected the GG nomination), and it's quite possible he could wind up landing in the bottom slot. It wouldn't be totally unearned.
5. Christian Bale, Ford V Ferrari
A few days ago I would have been a lot more annoyed by the possibility of this being a nomination, but after actually seeing the movie, I'm more okay with it. This one is still very much up in the air, though.
4. Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
I'm not going to pretend that this is a guaranteed nomination (foreign language films seldom are), but he hasn't lost a bit of momentum going into Oscar season, and without a single other nomination to his name, this might be his unofficial lifetime achievement award. I'm calling this a very likely nomination.
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The first on the list that I can call pretty much a lock. It's DiCaprio, he's always going to be likely, and it's a great performance in a well-received movie. He won't win, but he'll be on the ballot.
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Phoenix still hasn't won, and this might be the movie that changes that. People may not be in agreement about the movie itself, but his performance is universally praised. But still, I see him coming second to...
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Call this my Manchester By The Sea pick. An emotional powerhouse of a performance that deserves every bit of praise it has received. Driver is the guy this year, and I think the Oscar is his to lose.
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