Yeah, even though the Oscars won't be taking place until April (maybe even later, depending on how things go) I want to go ahead and start my endless speculation process on what may find itself getting nominated this year in some of the major categories. Why bother? No reason. I have nothing better to do right now and I like Oscar predictions. So I'm going to leave this post untampered and come back in 6-8 months to see how it holds up.
For my first prediction, I am going to guess that only 60% of these predictions will be accurate. This means I'm only expecting maybe three from each of my top 5s will actually get nominations. I'll calculate that later, too, so we'll just see how this goes. Why not make predictions for my predictions? I'm going full Charlie Kaufman on this, just cramming everything up its own ass until it's all too confusing for most people to understand, but that's what makes it so much fun.
The categories I will cover here are as follows:
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Director
Best Picture
Now for a bunch of text and guessing. You ready for this? I'm gonna name a bunch of possibles, just to fill this all out, but the top 5 of each of these (barring Best Picture, of course) are the only REAL predictions. So I'm not counting something I place at #6 as being an accurate prediction when I come back to this. That would be cheating, and I don't see the point in that when it comes to a game I'm playing with myself that doesn't even really matter to begin with. Okay, let's do this.
Best Actor
10. Tom Holland, Cherry
A definite stab in the dark, but considering the rising stardom of the 24-year-old Tom Holland and the successes of the film's directors (Anthony and Joe Russo), this movie seems to have enough behind it to prove popular enough to gain Holland some attention for his performance. I consider this one unlikely until we see more about the movie in a few months, but for now I think 10th seems fair.
9. Riz Ahmed, Sound Of Metal
A couple dozen reviews are in for this movie so far, and they're pretty unanimously positive, most of which praising Ahmed's lead. But is he a big enough name to take a spot from some of the guys on this list? I don't know, and that to me seems to be the biggest question mark surrounding this one -- apart from the relative obscurity of the movie as a whole.
8. Tom Hanks, News Of The World
With most of the public opinion surrounding Tom Hanks as of late being relatively negative, I don't know if I see this movie working out quite as well as the studios undoubtedly hope, but that doesn't change the fact that Hollywood loves the guy. And just coming off his first nomination in nearly 20 years, he's proven that he still can get Oscar attention. Depends on how well the movie does at this point more than anything, because his performance will be fine regardless of the film's quality.
7. Colin Firth, Supernova
With most of the attention going to Stanley Tucci's performance (which has recently been revealed to being campaigning for a Supporting Actor spot this year), Firth may well get swept under the rug, but with his previous Oscar success, I think Firth won't get completely ignored this year. My guess right now would be that his best chance is at the Golden Globes, but we'll see. Either way, Firth could easily slip in if Supernova picks up steam over the coming months.
6. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas And The Black Messiah
Relatively little is known about this movie (by me) at this point, but considering how great Stanfield has been over the past 8 years or so in basically everything he's done, this might be his time to finally break through in a more major way. He still might be counted as support for this one, which holds him back slightly, but as of yet I still think there's a decent chance he could find a spot once the dust settles.
5. Steven Yeun, Minari
After the historical success of Parasite, I feel like this might be the time for a little more Asian-led films to finally do well at the Oscars. This movie has gotten universal acclaim, and Steven Yeun is not an unknown actor, so this just might be the perfect combination to wind up scoring some awards. With A24 behind it, that small of exposure might not help it out much, but I think the critical love for this movie just might do what it takes to get him in one of the bottom spots.
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
While this is the only movie I've actually seen on this list of Best Actor predictions, I can say that even without taking into consideration just how much this movie hits the right notes to do well at the Oscars, his performance is strong enough to get him in here. The movie as a whole is a bit sloppy and inconsistent at times, but Lindo is continually fantastic, and should be seen as one of the year's best performances.
3. Gary Oldman, Mank
A black-and-white David Fincher biopic about the screenwriter of Citizen Kane starring Gary Oldman? That's a slam dunk if I've ever seen one. I don't think I even need to bother explaining why this seems like a no-brainer prediction.
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
It's official, they'll be campaigning Boseman as lead for this movie, which means he won't be splitting votes with himself in support for Da 5 Bloods, which means he could very well be the first actor in history to get double posthumous Oscar nominations in the same year. Taking into account his tragic death and the seemingly-high quality of the film itself, this one looks to be a very possible Oscar winner for Boseman.
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
But I'm going with this one, seeing as how Hopkins has only won 1 Oscar over his career, and this seems to be the most well-received performance of his since Silence of the Lambs. If Hopkins doesn't get nominated for this I will be genuinely shocked, and a win for him seems to be about 50/50 for me at this point. His only major opponent right now appears to be Boseman, but I don't know if Boseman's death will be enough to overshadow this one. We'll just have to see how good Ma Rainey's Black Bottom really is to know, so I'm going with the safer bet for now.
Best Actress
10. Emily Blunt, Wild Mountain Thyme
Emily Blunt somehow hasn't gotten an Oscar nomination yet, but this one might be the one to do it. As John Patrick Shanley's first movie since Doubt (which got 4 acting nominations that year), Blunt seems to be in the right spot to walk away with something this year -- assuming the movie gets enough attention.
9. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Pfeiffer has mostly spent the past few decades under the radar, but this movie has been getting her some attention, and her name might be enough to get her in. Mediocre reviews hold it back somewhat, but no one has been saying she is anything but good, so who knows?
8. Meryl Streep, The Prom
It's Meryl Streep. She gets nominated for crap she doesn't deserve all the time.
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Mulligan doesn't get tons of awards, but I dunno. She's a solid actress, and a lot of people are calling this one of the best of her career. It's not totally bizarre to think she might get nominated for this.
6. Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Even though the movie hasn't gotten quite the universal love the filmmakers undoubtedly hoped for, no one has complained about the performances, and Winslet's history with the Oscars certainly helps her chances. Still, my gut has to put her slightly out of the top 5 for now.
5. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Amy Adams hasn't won an Oscar somehow, and she keeps getting nominated. I don't see that trend ending anytime soon, especially since Ron Howard isn't exactly the most interesting director around. She's probably gonna need something more than this to win that award, but I still have to consider her a likely nominee.
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces Of A Woman
Everyone is praising the opening of this movie, and most claim the rest of it doesn't live up to that opening. But just like that opening, Kirby has gotten nothing but love for her performance in this. She's a bit of an unknown, but I'm not sure if that matters here.
3. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Aretha Franklin biopic starring Oscar-winner as Aretha, Hudson being picked by Aretha herself as the actress she'd like to see in the role. Just like Mank earlier, this seems like a pretty easy guess.
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
The only thing keeping this from being on top is the fact that McDormand has already gotten 2 Oscars. Everyone loves this movie and says she's amazing in it.
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Yes, Davis has won an Oscar before, but there has only ever been one black Best Actress winner ever. If there's ever a time the Oscars are going to change that, it's now. Pair that will how meaty this role seems to be and how terrific Viola Davis generally is, and I don't see this one not winding up with a nomination, and probably even the win.
Best Supporting Actor
10. Tom Burke, Mank
I'm not seeing a lot of people throwing this name into the mix, but I think upcoming actors taking on potentially important roles like this in major movies seems like a "right place, right time" situation that would be hard to overlook. The biggest issue just might be his amount of screentime, which could be minimal.
9. Mark Rylance, The Trial Of The Chicago 7
It's tough to single out any actors from this movie, but I think Rylance was my favorite performance of the bunch. Not sure if he's gonna be able to rise above the rest (especially Cohen, who seems to be the favorite of most), but he might get in.
8. Charles Dance, Mank
Charles Dance hasn't been nominated before, and I don't see him getting a better chance than this. He plays William Randolph Hearst, and it's Mank. Kind of hard to ignore, honestly.
7. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas And The Black Messiah
I don't know, but Kaluuya has been nominated before and this movie on the surface seems to be the right material to get some attention. Maybe he'll get overlooked, maybe he won't. No way of knowing just yet.
6. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Seeing as how he's not getting split votes with Ma Rainey anymore, Boseman could find himself getting two nominations this year. But after having seen this movie, I just don't see him as being prominent enough to get a nomination here. If he does, it's 100% because he died, which I hate to say.
5. David Strathairn, Nomadland
McDormand has gotten a majority of the attention here, but Strathairn seems like the right kind of actor to land a nomination at least. The movie is well-received, and he's a strong actor, so it doesn't seem like a huge wild card prediction to me.
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial Of The Chicago 7
It's weird to even include Borat on this list, but people seem to really love Cohen in this movie, and he is given a lot of screentime, monologues, and quips, so this might actually wind up getting him some awards. I don't think he deserves them, necessarily, but hey, this isn't a favorites list.
3. Bill Murray, On The Rocks
Coppola and Murray re-teaming has gotten some attention, and a majority of that attention is directed towards Murray. He might just wind up winning an Oscar for this, but it's not terribly common for domestic dramedies to win acting awards, so I'm not sure about that. Still, a nomination seems likely.
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night In Miami
There aren't many people getting as much love for their performances as Odom Jr. has been getting for this one. He seems to have risen above his costars for the most part, and a nomination is looking like an almost guarantee at this point.
1. Stanley Tucci, Supernova
I honestly don't know if I can think of anyone who seems more likely to win Best Supporting Actor this year. This just looks like the kind of indie drama that will quietly sneak in a couple nominations and a win for Tucci. When he was possibly going for Best Actor, I wasn't sure, but in this category he looks like the best option so far.
Best Supporting Actress
10. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
I really don't have anything else to put in this spot. This category is pretty bleak, but this performance has been well-received.
9. Mary J. Blige, Respect
Previous Oscar nominee, and she's playing Dinah Washington. That could result in some attention.
8. Kristin Scott Thomas, Rebecca
Another shot in the dark, but Kristin Scott Thomas is usually pretty great, and this in the right type of role to get her something if the movie is well-liked enough.
7. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
While Yeun in the lead role seems to be gaining most of the momentum for this, there is definitely room for a supporting performance, and this one just might be the one.
6. Helena Zengel, News Of The World
This looks like it might be equivalent to Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit. Could make it in, maybe it won't. Really, this is the weakest looking category I've done so far.
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces Of A Woman
Maybe this is going to slip through the cracks, but something tells me this will be Burstyn's last major Oscar contender. It sounds like a pretty powerful role, and I can't think of 5 more that seem more likely to get nominations than this.
4. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Much like with Winslet, this performance has been well-received, and I think due to Ronan's Oscar history and the generall critical success and subject matter of the movie, this will probably wind up getting nominated.
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
This is one of the first ones I feel relatively confident about. While Seyfried hasn't had the most illustrious career, she's been making some strong moves in the past few years (Twin Peaks and First Reformed) that seem to be leading her in the direction of becoming a more "serious" actor. This looks like it might be the one for her.
2. Olivia Colman, The Father
She just won an Oscar a couple years ago, so maybe this won't be able to win her again, but that doesn't mean she won't be getting this nomination in the very least. It's supposed to be pretty great, and I don't doubt it. Maybe she'll even win, I don't know, but I'm gonna go with it this way.
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
I just watched the trailer, and yeah, this looks like the kind of role that could win her an Oscar. This would be her 8th career nomination, and she still hasn't won. She lost to Olivia Colman a couple years back, and I think this year she will return the favor.
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