I love Oscar season. I find all the politics behind everything hilarious, and the movies that will do well are almost always insanely easy to guess. This isn't always the case, but to try and see how predictable they all are, I'm gonna be making this group of predictions and leaving them untouched and then compare them with my more official predictions later on, just to see how much has changed in like 4-5 months. So, here is my first batch of guesses. And crap, why not throw in predicted winners while we're at it? They'll be the ones on the top. In bold. With stars. And "WINNER WINNER!" written next to them. Eh, maybe not that last part...
Oh yeah, and I just wanted to mention this real quickly, because I don't remember if I already typed it and I'm too lazy to read through to see if I already mentioned it (I don't proofread my own writing, like, ever), but I haven't seen any of these movies yet, apart from a couple of the animated ones (Zootopia and Kubo), so I am shooting blind here. Alright, here are the predictions.
---BEST ACTOR---
* Michael Keaton - The Founder
Casey Affleck - Manchester By The Sea
Denzel Washington - Fences
Joel Edgerton - Loving
Jake Gyllenhaal - Nocturnal Animals
---BEST ACTRESS---
* Ruth Negga - Loving
Emma Stone - La La Land
Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins
Emily Blunt - The Girl On The Train
Amy Adams - Nocturnal Animals
---BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR---
* Liam Neeson - Silence
Warren Beatty - Rules Don't Apply
Hugh Grant - Florence Foster Jenkins
Timothy Spall - Denial
Jeff Bridges - Hell Or High Water
---BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS---
* Michelle Williams - Manchester By The Sea
Aja Naomi King - The Birth Of A Nation
Kristen Stewart - Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Haley Bennett - The Girl On The Train
Naomie Harris - Moonlight
---BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY---
* Manchester By The Sea
Loving
The Birth Of A Nation
La La Land
20th Century Women
---BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY---
* Moonlight
Silence
Fences
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Nocturnal Animals
---BEST ANIMATED FILM---
* Zootopia
Kubo And The Two Strings
Moana
The Red Turtle
The Secret Life Of Pets
---BEST DIRECTOR---
* Martin Scorsese - Silence
Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester By The Sea
Damien Chazelle - La La Land
Jeff Nichols - Loving
Ang Lee - Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
---BEST PICTURE---
* Manchester By The Sea
Loving
Silence
La La Land
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
The Birth Of A Nation
Moonlight
Fences
The Founder
Hell Or High Water
So that's what I've got for now. Beginning of September, the Oscars aren't announcing nominees until late January, and winners a month later. Let's see how I did in a few months!
Oh, and I'm aware that certain release dates (particularly Silence) are still up in the wir, and we don't really know if they'll be released in time for awards contention, but obviously I'm willing to guess that they'll be out in time.
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