2012 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

Best Original/Adapted Screenplay are another of my favored categories, as I think that writing is the most important element of making great movies. On the other hand, it does provide just another category for the Academy to make political and social statements, so it's a mixed bag for me... Anyway, here are my current predictions:





1. The Artist
By Michel Hazanavicius



A new silent movie. The idea alone I find very intriguing. I think that this idea will be very appealing to Oscar voters as well, because even if the story isn't very creative (which, according to everything I've read, it's really not), the mode of presentation will be fresh enough to earn a multitude of screenplay votes.

- 90% chance





2. Midnight In Paris
By Woody Allen



Woody Allen is one of the most prolific screenwriters in history with a total of 14 writing nominations. Midnight In Paris is one of the most enjoyable, imaginative movies he's made for years. What part of this doesn't sound like a guaranteed nomination? I know I'll be rooting for it.

- 85% chance





3. Young Adult
By Diablo Cody



To me, this looks like it could very well be the first Jason Reitman movie that I won't like. However, since it *is* Jason Reitman (and written by Diablo Cody, an actor/screenwriter duo who won an Oscar for writing Juno) and he so far hasn't made a bad movie, I think Young Adult is a pretty safe bet in this category.

- 80% chance





4. J. Edgar
By Dustin Lance Black



Aside from the obvious fact that Eastwood's latest biopic is an Oscar front-runner, J. Edgar has another thing going for it -- its writer. A few years back, Dustin Lance Black wrote the Oscar-winning screenplay for Milk. However, Eastwood's movies have not had a great history with receiving screenplay nominations, so we'll see.

- 70% chance





5. Martha Marcy May Marlene
By Sean Durkin



I've heard it called "this year' Winter's Bone" about 50 times already, and with Olsen and Hawkes looking like viable acting candidates (mirroring Winter's Bone's Lawrence & Hawkes nominations), a screenplay nomination just might also be in order. The question is whether or not this movie will get the exposure necessary to receive the awards that I hear it rightly deserves.

- 60% chance





Other potential nominees:



6. Beginners
By Mike Mills



Let's face it, the subject of homosexuality is very popular with the Academy these days, and with what seems like a guaranteed nomination for Plummer, Beginners just might manage to stay in the voters' conscience long enough to also gain a screenplay nod.

- 45% chance





7. The Iron Lady
By Abi Morgan



For Meryl Streep another nomination is in the bag, but what about the rest of the movie? With a fairly rookie director/screenwriter combo, it wouldn't be unreasonable to assume that as a movie, The Iron Lady might be a complete bust. A nomination seems possible, but until we hear more from it, this movie likely won't earn a screenplay nomination -- but I won't rule it out.

- 35% chance





8. Take Shelter
By Jeff Nichols



I honestly doubt this movie is in contention for a screenplay nomination, but from everything I hear about this movie, it just might deserve to be. Though Shannon stands a reasonable chance for a Best Actor nomination, I'll have to wait until I get a chance to see it before I have a better idea what to predict as far as other categories.

- 30% chance