2012 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

And finally I reach the biggest category of them all... Without any ado whatsoever, I present my Best Picture predictions:





1. The Artist
Directed by Michel Hazanavicius



Unknown director, largely unknown leading actors, filmed in black & white... Why does this appear to be a frontrunner? Being an authentic-looking throwback to the silent era, from everything I've read about it, The Artist's refreshingly original presentation in its time (genuine silent movies not really having been made much over the past 80 years) has won over everyone who's seen it, and definitely ranks as one of my most anticipated movies of the year. If it's even half as good as it looks like it could be, we'll be in for a serious treat, and quite possibly the most unique Best Picture winner for a long, long time.

- 95% chance

2012 Oscar Predictions: Best Director

Almost by default the category that will be filled with the highest-profile Oscar frontrunners. As always, these aren't the movies I think "should" be nominated, but the ones I think will. Here it goes:





1. Michel Hazanavicius
The Artist



Despite the fact that it's not really what I would call typical Oscar material, I feel that it is easily the Best Director frontrunner.

- 95% chance

2012 Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

Though not as much fun as the Original Screenplay category, Best Adapted Screenplay is always packed, and the competition is usually much stronger than the Original Screenplay category. For predictions, it is usually considerably harder narrowing it down to only 5 nominees, but here is what I've got so far:





1. The Descendants
By Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, & Jim Rash



Though the Payne/Taylor writing duo that brought us every previous Payne-directed motion picture is not writing this drama-comedy, The Descendants is still almost guaranteed a nomination in this category. Unlike many directors, Alexander Payne's character based dramedies are always heavily reliant on great writing, and from everything I've heard, The Descendants is no different.

- 95% chance

2012 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

Best Original/Adapted Screenplay are another of my favored categories, as I think that writing is the most important element of making great movies. On the other hand, it does provide just another category for the Academy to make political and social statements, so it's a mixed bag for me... Anyway, here are my current predictions:





1. The Artist
By Michel Hazanavicius



A new silent movie. The idea alone I find very intriguing. I think that this idea will be very appealing to Oscar voters as well, because even if the story isn't very creative (which, according to everything I've read, it's really not), the mode of presentation will be fresh enough to earn a multitude of screenplay votes.

- 90% chance

2012 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

While Best Supporting Actor is what I would consider my favorite acting category, Best Supporting Actress is my least favorite. This personal bias, however, will play no part in how I view and rate the category, as I will continue to update them all as new movies are released and attention shifts from one movie to another.





1. Shailene Woodley - The Descendants



Alexander Payne's newest project The Descendants has had excellent reviews right out of the gate from its release in the Toronto Film Festival, with even the negative reviews praising both Clooney and Woodley's strong performances. With Hailee Steinfeld's nomination in the same category last year, Woodley's young age should not be detrimental to her chances of nomination (the Oscars have historically favored older, more experienced actors), but time will tell if her seemingly guaranteed nomination will continue earning praise as voting approaches.

- 95% chance

2012 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Probably my favorite category in all awards, I think Best Supporting Actor often has the most diversity in what nominees will be picked (would a performance like Robert Downey Jr in Tropic Thunder *really* have a chance of getting a nomination in the Best Actor category?), so it's also the most fun to predict. Here is what I have so far:

1. Christopher Plummer - Beginners



Ever since it's release this summer, I have heard nothing but great things about Plummer's performance. Though I'm sure part of that is due to the nature of his role (he's dying of cancer, and just came out of the closet: Grade-A Oscar material), I'm sure that the veteran actor (who only just recently earned his first Oscar nomination, also in the Supporting Actor category) is deserving of his praise. With its strategically placed Blu-ray/DVD release, Beginners should still be fresh to Academy voters, and I would say Plummer has a very good chance for another nomination -- perhaps even a win.

- 90% chance

2012 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

Though it's probably an easier category to predict than Best Actor, I find the Best Actress category is often much less amusing. Right now, however, 6 potential candidates seem to be vying for a top 5 position in my predictions, so it will be fun seeing how it develops over the coming months. As it stands, here are my predictions for Best Actress:

1. Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady



Two-time Oscar winner, and without a win for 30 years, Meryl Streep has accumulated more nominations than any other actor in history, with a total of 16 since the year 1978. It's practically tradition by now to nominate Streep for everything she's in (you won't hear me complain, she's an amazing actress, and has earned every bit of praise that's come her way) and I doubt this year will be an exception. The real question I'm asking myself is will this be the one to break her win-less streak of 12 nominations and give her a 3rd Oscar win?

- 100% chance